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Credit Crunch Confusion

Where do I invest my cash in 2008?

Anyone lucky enough to have a lump sum of cash to invest this year will be forgiven for wondering where to put it. Should it be stuffed safely under the mattress? Far too risky, you might get burgled and like organic matter your cash doesn’t stand still, the longer it stays under the mattress the more it’s eroded by time as it declines in value.

How about gold? Should you join those rushing to the comfort and safety of the precious metal?

There is also the high risk and potentially high rewards offered by stocks and shares. Depending on the lump sum, property could also be considered as a place watch an investment mature nicely.

After all, you can’t go wrong with property, it always rises in value and it’s as safe as houses isn’t it? This used to be the case, but now many property markets globally appear to be imploding, while the risk of exposure to the credit crunch in emerging locations like India and Brazil is unclear.

Property aside, wherever you look there are advocates for every form of investment. Those with vested interests will inevitably spread misleading interpretations of the direction a market is heading, breeding either positive or negative sentiment. This creates uncertainty, inevitably leading to the kind of panic we are seeing now among investors. We are led to believe that house prices are crashing, gold has never been a safer bet and it would be financial suicide to invest in stocks and shares as we enter one of the stormiest global markets seen in more than a quarter of a century.

Gold spiked in 1980 only to crash to a bear market lasting until 2001. House prices crashed in the recession of the early nineties plunging unfortunate mortgage holders into negative equity. The stock market took a big hit from the dotcom bubble in 2000 resulting in ruin for many. The stock markets, gold and property have all recovered, reaching record highs in the process.

The latest global financial panic caused by the credit crunch, with accompanying apocalyptic talk of another Great Depression has now trickled into mainstream thinking.

If all this leaves you wondering where to invest your money while all this panic is taking place it is worth keeping a cool head. Capitalism is characterised by cycles of boom and bust, which act as a vital safety valve for market economies. What goes up must inevitably come down at some point. Falling house prices are blamed for the current malaise in banking sector, yet surely no one in their right minds believed that house prices would rise indefinitely. House prices in the UK and the US are at their least sustainable levels since 1989. In the UK a correction was inevitable and overdue with house price to income ratios at an all time high.

Experts in the field now advise us that it is a bad idea to invest money in a market unlikely to recover for years to come. The credit crunch will supposedly compound the situation by causing a crash of anything up to 30% in the UK’s housing market.

But as Dad’s Army’s Corporal Jones would say, “don’t panic!” A housing correction is still unlikely to last more than four years and historically property is an asset which has consistently outperformed gold in the long term. People will always need somewhere to live – rent or buy – and demand for housing hasn’t gone away.

Investing should usually be considered as a long-term commitment of at least ten years and naturally you should expect some peaks and troughs along the way. Of course, there is always the problem of predicting when the market will reach the bottom – the best time to invest – something even the experts are finding hard to predict.

The key to finding the best property investments is to gain access to good local knowledge which will help secure genuine deals at prices below market value. So with property requiring specialist knowledge and stuffing money under the mattress out of the question, let’s look at the case for gold.

In the long term gold is a real asset like property, but with the added bonus of being liquid. Sure, it costs you money to store, but it is always marketable at the same time. There is also the current economic malaise to consider, food prices and oil have risen to record highs fuelling inflationary pressures on governments around the world. Some are predicting that oil will soon hit a previously unthinkable $200 a barrel. There is also the suggestion among doomsayers that confidence in fiat paper currency may be breaking down.

Apart from providing the essential raw material for jewellery, the mere mention of gold triggers great excitement among gold enthusiasts. They religiously track its progress through complex charts interpreting its peaks and troughs by the day, hour or week or month looking for evidence to support their view that gold is where you should be investing your money.

On the face of it, they have a strong argument.

Governments across the world are frantically trying to stimulate growth in their economies by slashing base rates, the resulting devaluation of currencies and inflation makes conditions perfect for gold to rise. Gold is a hedge against inflation providing some stability in an unstable global market place. As any advocate of the yellow metal will tell you, when all else fails, gold always holds value, as history has proved.

Where once the main topic of conversation over dinner was property, people are increasingly talking about gold. Gold is the new property. If you bought gold for $600 an ounce in January 2007 it would now be worth between $800 and $900. A good return by any measure, a sure thing…

So is there a downside?

Again this depends on whether you view gold in the short or longer term. In the short term the gold price is volatile, after peaking to a record $1000 a troy ounce in March it is now hovering around the $850 mark. This is hardly a crash, but demonstrates how the market is driven by speculative investment when times are bad for the economy. When economies were roaring along property and shares were the fashionable place to put your cash, therefore what happens when the good times are back? Can we rely on all those investors staying put while the big returns are made elsewhere?

The point is that gold is good for the risk averse, but it would be wrong to invest all your cash in it because it is little more than a store of value. You can’t leverage gold and it doesn’t produce yields.

So, if we ignore other commodities and label them ‘handle with care’, this leaves us with stocks and funds. Investors familiar with the stock market will tell you that in the long term equities outperform every other asset class. Buying the right shares can mean big returns depending on how profitable a company is in the future, however as with anything which relies on future performance, this can also be a risky strategy. You could also opt for funds, but avoid choosing a fund just because it has done spectacularly well in the past. Any decision to invest in funds needs to be considered carefully, ask anyone who invested their money in some property funds recently – an area having its toughest time for 20 years.

Before you even consider where to invest your cash, there is one question you should ask yourself, how much risk am I prepared to take? Depending on your appetite for risk you might consider any or all of the options mentioned earlier. There is no easy answer and even the experts get it wrong, so the sensible strategy is to spread your risk. Develop a broad portfolio which contains an element of gold. A broad portfolio will greatly increase your chances of weathering the financial storm.

The alternative? Invest your money in a high interest savings account and wait for the storm to pass, but beware, base interest rates are falling and this will reduce your returns.

And you may also ask yourself – are banks a safer bet than under your mattress these days anyway?

Real estate investing is tough at the best of times. What about the worst of times. Is it possible to invest profitably in real estate when the market is like it is right now?The real estate market is in meltdown right now. House prices are plummeting, foreclosures through the roof, people living in their cars and houses selling for $1. I’ve been watching a lovely 4 bedroom home in Florida that is listed on eBay right now for a starting bid of $1.Real estate investing success relies on a few simple parameters. Rising house prices and good rental returns. If an investor can secure a house that will rise in value over time and returns enough rental return to come close to covering the expenses of the mortgage and other holding costs, then that investor will, over time, make a profit.Ideally the rental returns from the tenants should exceed the costs of holding the property, and it is then in positive cash flow, and the investor makes a return on investment both from the income from the property and from the capital gain as well.It’s all pretty simple really. There’s dozens of real estate investment seminars around, however that’s the basics. If you buy a home for an investment, and the value of that home goes down over time, you’ll lose money.If you’re making a loss on the rental return over time, you’ll also lose money unless you can sell that home in the future at a price that is sufficiently higher than the purchase price to cover the rental losses and make some return on capital.Simple stuff. But hard to achieve, even in the best of times. When the market is good, like it was up until a while ago, you made money if you we’re a good real estate investor. If you chose well, bought well and tenanted the property well, you were in front.Not any more. The basic premise of real estate investing is rising home prices. If you’ve got rising home prices then you’ve got a good chance of doing well. Buy just about anything and by default you’ll make money.Now prices are falling.So right now there are no real estate investment opportunities right? Wrong. There are good real estate investment opportunities. But if you’re trying to find them yourself you’re almost guaranteed to fail. There are some professional real estate investors now who are trying, and if you’re a professional investor with significant real estate investment experience you may do well. Or you may well do badly too.But if you’re beginning real estate investing now you’d be better to stay out of the market. Unless……Imagine for a moment. A solid American public corporation, experienced in real estate investment. Well capitalized with a well thought out proven strategy for investing in real estate regardless of market direction.The corporation invests in buying homes in demand. Not your McMansions that are on eBay right now, but the sort of houses that millions of working Americans live in right now, or need to live in. Basic properties that exist in their millions right over the US.With sufficient capital it can buy hundreds of homes at a time. From government, charities or any organization that owns large numbers of homes in a single area. And because it can buy like that it can buy at way below market value. Hundreds at a time purchased in a suburb with all the right characteristics including high demand for rental properties and, in some cases a backlog of demand for up to 15 years.Then it refurbishes those homes to a high standard. While doing so it spends money on the suburb building parks and playgrounds and community facilities. And within a period of time a suburb has been totally transformed. New community attractions, high quality homes that people want to live in. Suddenly everyone wants to live there.Up to 40% of the profits are ploughed back into the local community.Demand rises, people want to live there, both to rent and buy. The corporation has created it’s own capital gain, regardless of market direction.And then it sells these properties to individual investors. No money down, loan provided, tenant provided with a rental guarantee. Immediate equity to the investor of around 15%. The investor owns the property and can hold it or sell it and keep 100% of the profits.Now that’s successful real estate investing in a bad market. But it takes experience, commitment to a community and to the investors, and a solid background of real estate experience, and a lot of capital.Sound too good to be true? Maybe it’s not.

Wall Street area protest against bailout of investment banks.

www.weforum.org 26.01.2008 Myths and Realities of Private Equity Private equity firms invested over US$ 450 billion in 2007. But that investment has also led to greater demand for transparency and disclosure. What is the true role of private equity in capital markets today? Where is private equity adding value? Donald J. Gogel, President and Chief Executive Officer, Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, USA Martin C. Halusa, Chief Executive Officer, Apax Partners Worldwide, United Kingdom Josh Lerner, Professor of Finance, Entrepreneurial and Service Management, Harvard Business School, USA David M. Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Managing Director, Carlyle Group, USA Moderator Kevin Steinberg, Chief Operating Officer, World Economic Forum USA

This week top 10 investments (Nov. 12th, 2008): 1) www.gmt2u.com 2) http 3) www.topcommerce.biz 4) http 5) www.fxspear.com 6) http 7) www.e-cabotage.com http 9) www.fxmajesty.com 10) http SCAM ALERT! www.epprofit.com www.bluestones-capital.com www.prolexbiz.com Thank you for listening to my radio show every Wednesday. See you next week, don’t forget to subscribe to my channel, thanks.

This week top 10 investments (Nov. 5th, 2008): 1) www.summitreserve.biz 2) http 3) www.epprofit.com 4) http 5) www.fxspear.com 6) http 7) www.e-cobatage.com http 9) www.fxmajesty.com 10) http SCAM ALERT! www.prolexbiz.com www.stable-funds.com www.fxtradeinc.com Thank you for listening to my radio show every Wednesday. See you next week, don’t forget to subscribe to my channel, thanks.

www.privateholdingsgroup.com PHG Managed futures accounts, similar to managed forex accounts will produce gains better than your mutual fund in a short amount of time. If you are tired of losing money in your IRA during This economic down turn then PHG Managed futures may be the solution you’ve been looking for. Be sure to look out for HYIP scams Forex Scams and Futures Scams that are prevelent on the internet. If it claims to be a High yield investment make sure that the company is a member of the NFA and is regulated by the CFTC. Make sure that they dont take ecurrency’s these are the first sign of a scam. There are many e-gold scams and e-bullion scams out there.

In this Brand New DVD presentation Don and David mcalvany analyze the financial market chaos of 2008 and its immediate impact on the real world economy of 2009 and beyond. Order your FREE copy today at www.mcalvany.com/request.php or call 800 525 9556. After viewing this exclusive presentation you will better understand how to solidify your future and protect your assets. It’s your choice.

Sep 15, 2008. The venerable Lehman Brothers investment bank said early Monday that it will file for bankruptcy, while Bank of America unveiled plans to buy Merrill Lynch — two pieces of news that profoundly alter the American financial landscape. The fast-paced changes capped a roller-coaster Wall Street weekend and threatened to stir up US financial markets already reeling from woes at other major financial firms and mortgage financing titans Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “This crisis is clearly deeper than anybody had imagined only a short time ago,” Peter Stein, an associate editor at The Wall Street Journal in Asia, told CNN. Lehman Brothers said in a statement early Monday that it plans to file for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 of the US Bankruptcy Code. The 158-year-old investment bank had been undermined by bad bets on real estate — the value of its shares declined 94 percent this year. The fall of Lehman followed a wild, three-day scramble by top Wall Street executives and federal regulators, who worked around the clock to come up with a solution to a still-unfolding financial crisis. By the end of the weekend, the Federal Reserve had stepped in to try to calm the markets by announcing plans to loosen its lending restrictions on the banking industry. A consortium of 10 leading domestic and foreign banks agreed to create a $70 billion fund for loans to troubled financial firms. Source: edition.cnn.com